With Golden Globes and SAG announcing their nominees, there have been some interesting developments to the Oscar Race. While the likely nominees remain mostly unchanged, there are significant shifts in frontrunner status. More than any recent year though, this is a peculiar race that lacks a consensus frontrunner for Best Picture. While the Globes and SAG likely narrowed that down to three, many of the acting races are wide open with at least two realistic choices for an eventual winner. For the first time since I have begun doing this analysis, I cannot confidently state a frontrunner for any of the major races (although Willem Dafoe is probably the safest bet). With Oscar nominations less than a month away, I have expanded my analysis to include all acting categories as well as Best Director. I will do a final prediction after Golden Globes Awards and the PGA/DGA nominations.
Best Picture
1.) Dunkirk
-Since the SAG Ensemble Award was introduced in 1995, only Braveheart has managed to go on to win Best Picture without at least being nominated in this category. In recent years, pre-cursor awards have not been as consistent an indicator as they once were, particularly the PGA, and sooner or later this streak will have to end. The no-nom is not particularly shocking given that the style of the film is not a showcase for acting chops. The film remains as likely as ever to be nominated for Best Picture, but will need to snag Best Director and Motion Picture at the Golden Globes to retain its frontrunner status. Otherwise, expect the below films to continue their climb. More and more, this feels like a place holder until one of the below films beats it in competition. Expect a swap after Globes.
2.) Get Out (Prev. 10)
-It is unfortunate Jordan Peele did not receive a directing or screenplay nod from the Globes, but that is mostly insignificant as that voting body does not include the people that determine the Oscar nominees. The Ensemble nod at SAG is huge for its chances and Peele should become the first African-American to receive a nomination for Original Screenplay in over 25 years. With the new makeup of voters in the Academy, Get Out should benefit more than anyone. The true potential of the film will likely depend on its star, Daniel Kaluuya. Films rarely win Best Picture without at least one acting nominations, with Slumdog Millionaire being the last film to do so. A nomination for him is a strong indicator that voters are passionate about the film.
3.) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
-It is no surprise that SAG, a voting body composed entirely of actors, embraced one of the flashiest acting ensembles of the year. What is more surprising is that they loved it so much, they even got Woody Harrelson nominated alongside Sam Rockwell in the supporting category. Questions regarding how it handles race have not dogged it thus far. A strong showing at the Golden Globes will likely solidify this as the film to beat, but it will need to avoid becoming too controversial. Unfortunately, the more it establishes itself as a frontrunner, the more likely that narrative comes to fruition.
4.) Lady Bird (Prev. 7)
-There are many things at play this season that have quickly propelled this film to frontrunner status with a demand for better representation of women being the most dominant. Unlike Three Billboards, which also features a feisty lead woman, Lady Bird doesn’t carry any of the controversy or politics alongside it. It scored a key mention for SAG Ensemble and if it tops Get Out at the Globes, that will boost its status further. That said, it will need to score at least one nomination for either Best Director or Best Film Editing come Oscar nominations. No film has ever won without at least a nomination in one of those categories and the structure of the film doesn’t make it an obvious choice for either. Every film above it is essentially a lock for at least one of those categories. Expect a rise if Gerwig scores a directing nod.
5.) Call Me By Your Name (Prev. 2)
-I think there are a few reasons that the film underperformed at the SAG but none are particularly good signs for its chances. It already had to compete against being categorically similar to Moonlight and needed ardent support to overcome that (unfair) comparison. Without an Ensemble nod for the film and with neither Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg getting a nomination, the film doesn’t appear as contentious as initially believed. Certainly still in strong shape to score an Oscar nomination but perhaps not as strong a frontrunner as initially perceived.
6.) The Shape of Water (Prev. 4)
-Quite frankly, the no-nom for Ensemble hurts the film. Unlike CMBYN, there was a large enough cast to have realistically scored a nomination there. Thus far, the film has seesawed on the awards circuit in either leading nominations (Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes) or being unusually low in recognition. It should still fair well at the Oscars, particularly with technical nods, but it is now facing an uphill battle to prove its status as a legitimate Best Picture contender.
7.) The Post (Prev. 5)
-Just as the film gained steam with the Golden Globes, it has almost immediately returned to being a major question mark. Quite clearly, the lack of any recognition at the SAG is a result of not enough people having time to see the film. Of all the industry awards, this was always going to be the most perilous one for the film to gain enough traction. PGA and DGA are far enough down the road, and after the holiday, that most voters should have ample opportunity to see the film before votes are finalized for those fields. So long as Spielberg gets his DGA nod and the film appears at the PGA, it will return to heavyweight status, likely surpassing The Shape of Water and CMBYN. Until then, it remains here as a frustrating unknown.
8.) Mudbound (Prev. 6)
-Mary J. Blige is 2 for 2 thus far in acting nominations and the film secured an essential Ensemble nod at SAG. It needs to snag a PGA nomination to realistically remain in the conversation but these are positive steps forward for a film that deserves to be more involved in the Best Picture conversation. Its cinematography and screenplay will hopefully secure some industry nods and help it remain relevant over the next month. If Netflix carefully markets the film, it could sneak in. I remain hopeful at least.
9.) The Florida Project
-So long as Willem Dafoe remains a legitimate frontrunner, this film will maintain some level of buzz. Its small scale and children leads are fairly unconventional for the Oscars, but if enough people adore it, The Florida Project may sneak into the final lineup. Like Mudbound, it will really need a PGA nomination in order to solidify itself. With no clear frontrunner, this may be a deeper year in total nominees which could leave the door open here.
10.) The Disaster Artist (Prev. 11)
-James Franco being nominated at SAG is huge. He has always been somewhat controversial to the academy and the fact that the actors branch (by far the largest section of Oscar voters) were willing enough to at least nominate him is a good indication the film has a chance as well. It has a good narrative and Hollywood always love a well-done film about Hollywood. PGA, which nominates 10 films every year, will need to include this in their lineup. They nominated Deadpool last year, so a film like this would not entirely be out of place for them.
11.) The Big Sick (Prev. 15)
12.) Darkest Hour (Prev. 8)
13.) Phantom Thread (Prev. 10)
14.) I, Tonya
15.) Blade Runner 2049 (Prev. 13)
Best Director
1.) Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
-Nolan is thoroughly overdue for his first nomination and Dunkirk is such a technical achievement that it is hard to imagine the Academy not at least nominating him. More than likely, it appears to be a showdown between the top two in this category and early success of Dunkirk will be a good indication of Nolan’s potential here.
2.) Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
-Another director who has amazingly never been nominated. If The Shape of Water scores double digit nominations, he should be considered the frontrunner. If it goes more like SAG or any of the other critics’ awards, he likely won’t have the momentum to go the distance. Time will sort this out.
3.) Jordan Peele (Get Out)
-Unlike the other directors, Peele has a strong background in television which should allow him to score an easy DGA nomination since most of the directors that vote are from television. Even so, Jordan Peele has been the most recognized and appreciated directorial effort with critics and his no-nom at the Globes has garnered significant notice. If SAG is an indication, the Academy is going to be quite receptive to the film and Peele may snag three nominations.
4.) Steven Spielberg (The Post)
-I suspect that Spielberg will get his first nomination in five years, but unless the film starts to gain some unforeseen momentum, this isn’t really his year. More than likely, he will be the only nominee that has been nominated before (and he has already won twice). I don’t expect this to be the film that gets him a third especially when he is surrounded by an unrecognized crowd like this.
5.) Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-More than anything, the ensemble performances and screenplay (also by McDonagh) have been the major citations by critics. That said, the film is riding a lot of momentum and akin to The Big Short, McDonagh may be able to benefit from that and snag his first directing nod. Even if Three Billboards is looking strong for Best Picture, don’t expect him to be a heavy player for director. Academy typically favors technical achievements and that is simply not the style of the film.
6.) Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
7.) Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
8.) Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
9.) Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
10.) Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)
Best Actor
1.) Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
-In a traditional year, this race would have already been over and he would dominate the entire awards season. As it stands, he still could, but the “baity” role of Winston Churchill is no longer the easy path to Oscar glory that it once was. With Darkest Hour appearing less likely to sneak into the Oscars and with more public debate about the Oscar’s tendency to opt for energetic roles like this, there could be an overhauling of expected norms. Still, even with all of that, it is hard to deny Oldman’s commitment to the role and he has held frontrunner status for months now. It is still his to lose, but the gap appears smaller than normal.
2.) Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
-Chalamet qualifies for two historically predictive trends, one beneficial, the other not so much. Notably, he won both the Los Angeles Film Critic and New York Film Critics Circle Awards. A high percentage of actors have gone on to win the Academy Award after snagging those two precursors. On the opposite end however, he would be the youngest winner ever for Best Actor and the youngest nominee since Mickey Rooney’s performance in Babe in Arms, way back in 1939. Unlike Best Actress, the Oscars rarely nominate young men and only once have they ever given it to a man under 30. That was Adrien Brody in 2003 for The Pianist and he was 29. Chalamet has quite a hurdle to overcome but this may be the closest and actor that young gets for the foreseeable future.
3.) Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
-The miss at the SAG can probably be attributed to the fact that not enough screeners for the film were distributed to voters. Still, momentum is not favoring Day-Lewis right now and while it would be shocking to not see him nominated, he doesn’t appear to be as serious a threat as imagined.
4.) Tom Hanks (The Post)
-Hanks is long overdue for another nomination as he hasn’t been since 2000 for Castaway. The Post is politically relevant and he is playing a part that won Jason Robards an Oscar in 1977. Unless the film catches fire, I don’t expect him to be a serious player here, but it will be a nice welcoming back to Hollywood’s most likable man.
5.) James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
-So long as he wins Best Comedy Actor at the Golden Globes, he should be the final slot here. His performance has been widely acclaimed and in a lesser year, he might have been a legitimate threat to win the award. Ultimately though, it may come down to how heavily the Oscars embrace Get Out. His performance is stronger than Kaluuya’s but The Disaster Artist is not carrying the same traction as Get Out so Franco will need to get in on his merit alone. Certainly doable as things stand, but far from a lock.
6.) Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
7.) Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
8.) Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
9.) Hugh Jackman (Logan)
10.) Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Best Actress
1.) Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-More and more, this particularly competitive race is appearing to be a showdown between McDormand and Ronan. Both scored nominations at the Golden Globes and SAG but since they are in different categories at the Globes, (one comedy, the other Drama) so we will have to wait until SAG to have a better idea of the leader. McDormand will not campaign at all and so that may have an impact on the overall race. However, if Three Billboards is going all the way, it is hard to not see the central actor scooping up a trophy as well.
2.) Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
-Over the last couple of years, Ronan has really solidified herself as one of this generation’s finest young talents. At 23 she is already in position to score her third Oscar nomination and if not for Brie Larson’s performance in Room, she would probably already have an Oscar. Unlike McDormand, she works the awards circuit and her likability will certainly have a positive impact. If Lady Bird becomes a more significant player she could find herself in a winning position. More than likely, the winner at the SAG will go on to win the Oscar.
3.) Meryl Streep (The Post)
-It is hard to find a year in which Streep is not in the conversation. However, this year she finds herself a more serious competitor due largely to the fact that she is part of a Best Picture contender. For all of her nominations, it has been 15 years since she was last nominated for a film that also scored a Best Picture nomination. Since the turn of the century, nearly two-thirds of the winners here were in Best Picture nominees. Streep has won twice without that benefit but there is definitely extra leverage in being a part of a serious contender. She will need to top McDormand at the Globes though since The Post is not a part of SAG.
4.) Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
-So long as The Shape of Water hits strong with the Oscars, which it should easily do, Hawkins will score her second nomination as well. Her ultimate potential will depend of the competitiveness of the film. On its face, her performance, at least to voters, will not top Ronan or McDormand and so she will need the strength of the film to propel her forward if she wants to seriously compete here. Excluding a shocking snub, she will be nominated though.
5.) Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
-Unless the Brits carry Dench to a nomination, Robbie will be the only first time nominee here. She has done a phenomenal job of capitalizing on the attention from The Wolf of Wall Street and has continued to pursue high-octane roles. Reviews have been very strong, but she is not in a dominant position and is arguably outperformed by co-star Allison Janney. A fun performance, but not a winning one.
6.) Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
7.) Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
8.) Emma Stone (The Battle of the Sexes)
9.) Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
10.) Brooklyn Prince (The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actor
1.) Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
-Thus far, Dafoe has dominated the critics awards and in the always “carouselling” supporting race, he appears to be on eof the few certainties for a nomination. Biggest obstacle facing him is that he may well be the film’s only nomination for the Oscars. It didn’t stop Christopher Plummer five years ago when he swept up nearly every award for his performance in Beginners but it does make Dafoe open to being overtaken by a film with more momentum and his primary opponent is definitely in a position to do just that.
2.) Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-Rockwell deserves to finally get some recognition. He has had a long career with very little awards consideration and it is time he got some notice. That said, his character, and the overall message of his arc, are particularly problematic and I think the Academy will be very wary of that when voting. Nothing wrong with the performance, but the politics are not on his side. He could still win if the films skirts becoming too controversial but it will be an interesting PR challenge.
3.) Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
-Having finally been able to see the film, Jenkins is fully deserving of the recognition he is getting thus far. He brings a lot of heart and humility to the character and elevates him beyond the simple trope of the gay best friend. Unless The Shape of Water is making an unforeseen push, it is hard to see his ascending past the above two but it should at least be his first nomination in a decade.
4.) Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
-Truthfully, the final two slots could be anyone in the 4-8 slots but for now, I am doubling down on Call Me By Your Name. Although I have him above Stuhlbarg, I think he is more susceptible to missing out entirely. There are whispers that he is not well liked among the acting community (which may speak to his no-nom at the SAG), but there is no doubt the film has a passionate base and if it scores well at Oscars, it is hard to imagine him missing out.
5.) Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
-While I still have yet to see the film, I have heard much talk of his performance in the film’s final scene. With Harrelson also in contention with very limited screen time, it may simply come down to who has greater momentum. Personally, I am betting on SAG being an anomaly for Harrelson like it was for Jacob Tremblay, James Gandolfini, and Javier Bardem in years past. Still the SAG is an accurate predictor and rarely misses more than one. With Steve Carell the obvious choice to miss out on the Oscar, Harrelson may well squeeze into a nomination. All of that said, this category is the most likely to have a surprise entry (Tom Hardy, Jonah Hill, Alan Arkin) and Stuhlbarg is my pick.
6.) Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
7.) Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
8.) Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
9.) Bob Odenkirk (The Post)
10.) Steve Carell (The Battle of the Sexes)
Best Supporting Actress
1.) Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
-This is a race that may jump back and forth between Metcalf and Janney. Both are extremely successful TV Actresses with multiple Emmy’s each but this will be their first Oscar nomination and ultimately will come down to the type of performance the Academy feels like recognizing. In year’s past they have been open to more nuanced, less bombastic roles, namely Casey Affleck and Mark Rylance, but they do always love a good villain (J.K Simmons in Whiplash comes to mind). If Lady Bird continues to be as affecting on audiences, Metcalf should edge out Janney.
2.) Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
-A couple of months ago, she was hardly in the conversation but she has quickly shot up to serious consideration and a win at Globes would be a huge boost. SAG will likely be best indicator but even then, I wouldn’t count that as a guarantee. Should be a very interesting race to follow.
3.) Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
-Having seen the film, her role is not as large as I had imagined but she does a lot in the scenes she has, particularly the heckler scene at the comedy club. I don’t think she is at all in contention to win, but of the remaining actresses in consideration for a nomination (3-6), she feels the safest to score a nomination.
4.) Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
-Although Mudbound has mostly been hit or miss at awards thus far, Blige has been a consistent presence. Then again so was Idris Elba a few years back for Netflix’s Beast of No Nation and he ultimately missed out on a nomination. Ultimately, her chances depend on how receptive the Academy is to Netflix.
5.) Hong Chau (Downsizing)
-Although Spencer has had success with the Academy (including a win for The Help), Chau may have more support than anticipated. She scored an SAG nomination and the film’s writer-director has always scored at least one nomination for every film he has made. With clear supporters of his work and Chau being the easiest aspect to recognize, there is a logical path to her nomination.
6.) Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
7.) Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
8.) Tiffany Haddish (Girl’s Trip)
9.) Katherine Keener (Get Out)
10.) Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Cody R. Norton 